• Centennial, Colorado, United States
  • WxZone: COZ045ICAO: KAPALat: 39.58NLon: 104.88W

Discussions

300 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

.SHORT TERM...DRY AIRMASS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT 
WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF 
THE AREA...40S HANGING ON IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER. NOTHING TO WORK 
WITH SO ONLY HIGH SHALLOW CU EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BIT MORE MOISTURE HAS POOLED IN THIS 
ZONE...BUT CONVECTION WILL STILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER BETWEEN THE DRY 
ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THERE WILL BE 
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRONG WINDS AS THESE SHOWERS 
MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT THE WIND FIELD TO BE DIMINISHING THOUGH AS THE 
SHOWERS MOVE EAST DUE TO DIURNAL TREND AND LESS MOISTURE COMING OVER 
THE MOUNTAINS. NOT SURE IF THIS SHOWER BAND HAS ANY BETTER HOPE THAN 
LAST NIGHTS OF MAKING IT PAST THE FRONT RANGE...IT HAS BETTER 
ORGANIZED/STRONGER LIFT...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE IS STRONGER TOO AND THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS DRIER. WILL ONLY HOLD ON TO THE 10 PERCENT POPS EAST 
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE SHOWER 
BAND...THEN A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION IN NW FLOW BEFORE THE 
WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN...SO A BRIEF ROUND OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS IS 
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. 

ON MONDAY...POST FRONT ENVIRONMENT IS NOT QUITE AS DRY AS TODAY. 
POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW LEVEL OF THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN BY THE END OF 
THE DAY AND MAY COME SOON ENOUGH TO CAP MOST CONVECTION. CURRENT LOW 
POPS LOOK ADEQUATE AND MAY BE TOO MUCH IF THE SUBSIDENCE AND 
STABILIZATION ARE STRONG ENOUGH.

IT WILL BE DRY AND WINDY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS LOOK 
MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING AS HUMIDITIES ARE 
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 15%. PROBABLY A LITTLE WINDIER BUT A BIT 
HIGHER HUMIDITIES THAN TODAY OVERALL WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS IN 
THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE FUELS ARE ALSO MARGINAL FOR RAPID FIRE 
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WX PATTERN SHAPING UP 
FOR THE COMING WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST LIFTS 
NORTHEASTWARD AND FLATTENS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES MONDAY 
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. BEING POSITIONED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS 
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EXCEPT 
ON THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN OUT OF WYOMING AS THE 
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS 
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. COULD SEE AN 8-10F DROP IN MAX 
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE 
AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER 
DAYTIME HEATING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO POP A FEW LATE DAY MOSTLY 
DRY T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70...AND OUT 
NEAR THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK WHERE MODELS SHOW 
A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND.           

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE MUCH OF 
TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST...BUT VERY STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
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