• Assembly Of God Church, Georgia, United States
  • WxZone: GAZ144ICAO: KABYLat: 31.31NLon: 84.4W

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228 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 2 PM EDT...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY WITH CIGS 2-4K IN LIGHT RAIN 
ACROSS WEST HALF...TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EAST HALF OF AREA. TEMPS 
WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH WINDS E/NE 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS 
ABOVE 20 MPH ACROSS PANHANDLE COAST/WATERS. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT 
COMPARISON INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IS MOIST AIRMASS. 

AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED HIGHLIGHTED BY 
SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALONG WESTERN STATES...A STACKED 
RIDGE OVER ERN STATES AND A TROUGH ACROSS ADJACENT WRN ATLC. RIDGE 
AXIS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BUILDING 596DM HIGH 
OVER CAROLINAS. A STRONG HIGH WAS PARKED OVER E TX COAST. MAIN 
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN MID/UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IMPINGING ON RIDGE 
AND CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH ASSOCD WEAK H5 TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM OVER LWR MS DELTA. ASSOCD SHORTWAVE PUSHING EWD. 
AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID TO 
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING OVER ESE AND ACROSS LOCAL REGION ESPECIALLY 
WRN THIRD OF CWA.  

DURING THE 24 HRS...WESTERN TROUGH WILL SHIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD AND 
DEAMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY 
NEGATIVE TILT. HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE MID ATLANTIC 
COAST WITHIN SE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. RIDGE WILL STRETCH SSW WITH 
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/WARM AIR ALOFT TO DOMINATE SE REGION/NE GULF 
AND ADJACENT WATERS. IN BETWEEN...ABOVE H5 TROUGH WILL DRIFT BACK 
EWD AND SLOWLY FILL BUT ALSO IMPACT LINGERING GULF SURFACE TROUGH 
IGNITING MORE PRECIP ESPECIALLY OVER PANHANDLE COAST AND ADJACENT 
WATERS THRU OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEYOND 18-24 HRS...HIGH BEGINS TO DROP 
DOWN EAST COAST WITH RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER NE GULF WHILE H5 TROUGH 
SHIFTS FURTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ALL THIS SPREADS 
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO REGION. THIS REFLECTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS 
WHICH SHOW AREA PWATS REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES THRU 12Z MON BEFORE 
DRIER AIR BEGINS IMPACTING LOCAL AREA FROM NE-SW. I.E. GFS TAE PWAT 
DROPS FROM 2.11 INCHES 12Z MON TO 1.20 INCHES ON 06Z TUES

AT LOWER LEVELS...
THE MAIN AREA FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS 
MUCH OF ERN CONUS WITH 1022MB HIGH CENTERED OVER VA. THIS HIGH 
DROPPING SWWD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WAS BEING REINFORCED BY 
H5 RIDGE VCNTY OF APPALACHIANS. SOME HINT OF WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT 
DROPPING SSW ACROSS N FL. LOOKING WWD...A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING 
INLAND FROM THE CNTRL GULF WITH ASSOCD STATIONARY WEAK TROUGH 
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. THIS COMBINATION OF HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST 
AND LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SW HAS TIGHTENING LOCAL GRADIENTS AND 
GENERATED MODERATE TO BREEZY EAST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS PANHANDLE WATERS AND COAST.  

DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE FURTHER 
INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
EASTERN STATES ANTICYCLONE. BEHIND DEPARTING BACKDOOR FRONT...AS 
UPPER HIGH SINKS SWD...SURFACE REFLECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN 
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGE PUSHING INTO GULF 
TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. IN THE SHORT TERM THIS WILL 
KEEP UP LOCAL GRADIENTS/WINDS. THE RESULT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE 
PUSHED INCREASINGLY S/SWD AND AWAY FROM AREA WITH LOWER POPS FROM 
NE-SW.  SO BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE PANHANDLE WATERS. 

.SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING-WEDNESDAY)...
TONIGHT...SHARP 60-0 SW-NE POP GRADIENT. WILL ADD ISOLD TSTMS ONLY 
IN PANHANDLE WATERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE 
MAINLY ERN THIRD OF CWA...BUT LESS SO WRN THIRD WHERE GRADIENTS WILL 
BE STRONGEST.  

MONDAY...TYPE 3 (MDT TO STRONG ELY FLOW) SEA BREEZE REGIME FAVORS 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIP WITH S (HIGHEST)-N (LOWEST) GRADIENT. HOWEVER 
...THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY HIGH/DRIER AIR BUILDING SWWD INTO AREA. SO 
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND 
AFTERNOON PERIODS ACROSS FL PANHANDLE/ADJACENT WATERS WHERE DEEPEST 
MOISTURE REMAINS. WILL GO WITH 60-10 SW-NE POP GRADIENT. THE DRIER 
AIR FILLING IN WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOL SHOWS ZERO CHANCE OF 
SEVERE WX AND LOCAL FSU LIGHTNING TOOL WITH NIL CHANCES OF LIGHTNING 
AWAY FROM PANHANDLE. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE...HIGHS WILL 
RISE TO MID-UPPER 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST. 

TUESDAY...TYPE 3 SEA BREEZE REGIME CONTINUES BUT WITH EVEN MORE DRY 
AIR BUILDING WSW...THIS WILL MORE THAN OFFSET EXPECTED POPS OVER FL. 
AOB 20 PCT POPS. SO VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS NEAR 90 SE AL TO LOW 90S SE BIG BEND.

WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONS TO TYPE 1 (LIGHT AND VARIABLE) FAVORS FL 
COUNTIES BUT BY NOW DRY AIR DOMINATES AT ALL LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE SO 
POP REMAIN NIL. FEWER CLOUDS...HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST...TO 
MID 90S EAST OF APALACHICOLA RIVER.   

&&
 
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DEEP LAYER TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS FORECAST PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
THIS...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF Q-G FORCING...WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES TO BELOW AVERAGE (GENERALLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS). ALTHOUGH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...LOWS MAY
COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (INLAND) DUE TO BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. BOTH MODELS FORECAST DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS MOS (WHICH
IS WEIGHTED TOWARD CLIMO THAT FAR OUT) IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS. WE PLAN TO BLEND THEIR DEWPOINT FORECASTS.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE
THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL MORE PLEASANT
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY.
  
&&

.AVIATION...MOST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS 
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER THAT COULD 
ALSO REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR LEVELS. OVERNIGHT...A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 
ALONG WITH A CIRRUS OR ALTOSTRATUS CANOPY SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT FOG 
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND THERE IS 
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY AFTERNOON OFFSHORE BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOWS WINDS AT OR ABOVE 
15 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. MODERATE TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS AND 
ABOVE NORMAL SEAS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A 
WEAKENING TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. SCEC REMAINS 
IN EFFECT FOR WRN OFFSHORE WATERS AND THIS MAY BE EXTENDED FOR OTHER 
WATERS LATER TODAY. EXPECT THE HIGHEST SEAS TO REMAIN FURTHER WEST 
OVER THE PANHANDLE WATERS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. DRIER 
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF 
THE WEEK.  

&&

.FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   72  90  73  92  71/ 30  20  10  20  20 
PANAMA CITY   74  86  74  88  76/ 50  40  20  20  20 
DOTHAN        70  87  70  89  69/ 30  20  20  20  10 
ALBANY        70  90  72  90  69/ 10  10  10  10  10 
VALDOSTA      71  91  71  91  69  10  10   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    72  91  72  92  70/ 20  10  10  10  10 
APALACHICOLA  75  86  75  89  75/ 50  30  10  20  20 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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