Discussions

317 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LOW EASTERN CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SPIN...INTERMITTENTLY DROPPING SHORTWAVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...WE REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES
ROTATING DOWN THE FLOW.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER HOT ONE. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT
ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THUNDERSTORMS EITHER...WE REMAIN IN
A SUBSIDENCE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF ONE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ONE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS PW VALUES
DROP TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.75". HOT...HUMID...GENERALLY OPPRESSIVE.

SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ALL MODELS REALLY WANT TO FIRE UP THE CONVECTION IN THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY WITH LOCATION
WITH THE ECMWF CENTERING THE CONVECTION UP TOWARD VIRGINIA AND THE
GFS/NAM HAVING THE MAX IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2" AGAIN WITH CAPES WELL OVER
2000 J/KG...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.

FORECAST TEMPS HAVE IN GENERAL BEEN A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HAVE TAKEN A BIAS-ADJUSTED MAV/MET BLEND
FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM. MET IS RUNNING COOLER THAN THE MAV ON
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER. LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS AS
ITS MASS FIELDS LINE UP BETTER WITH THE PREFERRED ECMWF.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND TROUGHINESS EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT WHICH POINT THE GFS BRINGS A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW
MORE ZONAL TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
DIFFERENCES ARE STILL MINOR...AND LEAD TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS
WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WAS RATHER LIMITED ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT 
TO BE EVEN MORE SO TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER 
GA...WITH THE CHANCE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE AIRPORTS EXCEEDINGLY 
LOW. MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT MOST 
LOCAL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY DIURNAL 4-5KFT CU...THOUGH EARLY MORNING 
HZ/BR MIGHT RESULT IN A BRIEF MVFR VIS RESTRICTION AT AHN THIS 
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH 
POSSIBLE SHIFT AROUND TO NE AFTER 12Z ON SATURDAY. 

ATL...CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.   

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS         101  72  95  72  93 /  10  10  50  40  30 
ATLANTA         97  75  95  75  93 /  10  10  40  30  30 
BLAIRSVILLE     90  68  89  68  89 /  20  20  50  40  30 
CARTERSVILLE    97  69  96  72  96 /  10  10  40  30  20 
COLUMBUS       100  77 101  76  96 /  10  10  30  30  30 
GAINESVILLE     96  74  92  73  91 /  10  10  50  40  30 
MACON          100  75  98  74  95 /  20  10  40  30  30 
ROME            98  69  96  72  96 /  10  10  40  30  20 
PEACHTREE CITY  96  70  97  72  95 /  10  10  30  30  30 
VIDALIA        101  78 100  77  96 /  20  10  40  20  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES: BLECKLEY...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MONTGOMERY...PULASKI...STEWART...SUMTER...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
BALDWIN...BIBB...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...MACON...MARION...MONROE...
MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKINSON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES: CLARKE...GREENE...MADISON...MORGAN...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...TALIAFERRO...WILKES.

&&

$$

TDP/RRH

510 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

ON THE WEATHER MAP THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA. A BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG
COASTAL CAROLINA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. A FRONT WAS DRAPED
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PEACH STATE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE AT 5 PM RANGED FROM
82 AT WINDER TO 101 AT ALBANY.

THE FORECAST FOR THE STATE OF GEORGIA...

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...
SOUTH AND EXTREME EAST. LOWS IN THE 70S. .FRIDAY...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS IN THE 70S...COOLEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S.

$$

RAG/10

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