• Oxford, Iowa, United States (52322)
  • WxZone: IAZ064ICAO: KCIDLat: 41.72NLon: 91.79W

Discussions

257 PM CST TUE MAR 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A SUB-1000 MB CYCLONE WRAPPING
UP ACRS NORTHEAST KS ATTM...WITH MAIN WARM FRONT RETREATING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MO BORDER. 12Z UA ANALYSIS AND EVEN ROTATIONS ON
THE W/V LOOP INDICATE A COMPLEX MULTI-VORT CENTERED UPPER LOW
COMPLEX SWIRLING OVER MUCH OF KS/NEB AND ACRS WESTERN IA AND MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AN ASSOCIATED VORT PIECE ACRS WESTERN MO IS STILL ON TRACK TO
PROPAGATE UP ACRS THE DVN FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER
PUSHES NORTH ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY. RATHER ROBUST FORCING
INDICATED BY 5 MICROBAR/SEC POS MID LEVEL OMEGAS UTILIZING A NICE
CONVERGENT SSW LLVL FLOW ENRICHED BY GULF MOISTURE/PWS OF AT LEAST
.8 SUPPORT A BAND OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING UP ACRS THE
CWA TONIGHT. CONVECTION ALREADY ORGANIZING ATTM ACRS NORTH CENTRAL
MO...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
AND THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTH. A LEADING PLUME OF MID LAYER UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATES AND MU CAPES OF 150+ J/KG ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING IN PRIME FORCING WINDOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I80...WITH SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES NORTH OF I80 AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM. EXTRAPOLATING FORCING AND LLVL CONVERGENT
WINGS SUGGEST BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z-
24Z WED...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE FILLING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING RAINS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. WILL ALSO ADVERTISE MORE FOG
AGAIN THIS EVENING NORTH AND EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVING RAIN
BAND IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENT ZONE. MID TO UPPER 40 DPT SURGE
WITH EVEN SOME 50S THIS AFTERNOON NOT TO DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH
AND WILL FOSTER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. WILL WALK OUT RAIN
IN TE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN FOG AND DRIZZLE
BEFORE AFTERNOON MIXING SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. WITH THE CWA
BECOMING UNDER ALMOST A WARM SECTOR EFFECT BY WED AFTERNOON TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCCLUDING LOWS COMPLEX...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS IF THERE ARE SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS.      ..12..

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
WET IS THE SUCCINCT ANSWER TO THE FCST. LIGHT WINDS...WET AND COLD
GROUND SHOULD ALLOW FG TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DZ
EXPECTED. FORCING INCREASES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ BRINGS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH
MISSOURI AND ENTER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. THIS BAND ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THE WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ MAY ALLOW ISOLD TSRA TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN BAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME
PERIOD FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 2/3RDS OF AN INCH TO NEARLY AN INCH SEEM REASONABLE. THESE
AMOUNTS COULD BE LIGHTER OR HEAVIER DEPENDING ON HOW THE BAND SETS
UP AND WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH.

LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FG AND DZ SEEM REASONABLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE AREA AND INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF EACH OTHER.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE UPPER SYSTEM WITH EACH NEW RUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENTLY THE FCST IS DRY WITH
CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN THE UPPER SYSTEMS THEN POPS MAY NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BRING DRY WX TO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.     ..08..

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWERING CIGS AND MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE IFR OR EVEN LIFR
REALM AGAIN WILL PRECLUDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN THIS
EVENING. TEMPORARY BOUT OF MVFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON
AS TE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE LOCAL TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF BRL AND POSSIBLY
CID FROM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY WAS OUT
THE FOG SOME AND IMPROVE VSBYS SOME AS THE TRAIN BANS PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MOST RAIN PROJECTED TO BE NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
BY 12Z-14Z WED. DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORNING.     ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.  THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF FROM THE SNOWMELT.  FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE MAQUOKETA...
WAPSIPINICON...IOWA... ENGLISH...NORTH SKUNK AND SKUNK RIVERS FOR
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING AND WOULD EXPECT POINTS ON THE CEDAR AND
DES MOINES RIVER TO BE ADDED TO THE LIST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS FROM THE NCRFC SHOW NEARLY ALL THE TRIBUTARIES
IN EASTERN IOWA AND NW IL REACHING MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORIES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IF THE 5 DAY QPF VERIFIES.      ..DLF..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

12/08/DLF
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