- Oxford, Iowa, United States (52322)
- WxZone: IAZ064ICAO: KCIDLat: 41.72NLon: 91.79W
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Currently

44°F7°C
Light Rain
- Feels Like:38°F3°C
- Dew Point:43°F°C
- Humidity:96%
- Winds:E 10 mphE 16 kph
- Pressure:29.50 in999 hPa
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Astronomical
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Sunrise:
Sunset:6:26 AM CST
6:08 PM CST -
Moonrise:
Moonset:3:47 AM CST
1:21 PM CST
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Neighborhood Weather
Discussions
257 PM CST TUE MAR 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A SUB-1000 MB CYCLONE WRAPPING UP ACRS NORTHEAST KS ATTM...WITH MAIN WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MO BORDER. 12Z UA ANALYSIS AND EVEN ROTATIONS ON THE W/V LOOP INDICATE A COMPLEX MULTI-VORT CENTERED UPPER LOW COMPLEX SWIRLING OVER MUCH OF KS/NEB AND ACRS WESTERN IA AND MO. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... AN ASSOCIATED VORT PIECE ACRS WESTERN MO IS STILL ON TRACK TO PROPAGATE UP ACRS THE DVN FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER PUSHES NORTH ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY. RATHER ROBUST FORCING INDICATED BY 5 MICROBAR/SEC POS MID LEVEL OMEGAS UTILIZING A NICE CONVERGENT SSW LLVL FLOW ENRICHED BY GULF MOISTURE/PWS OF AT LEAST .8 SUPPORT A BAND OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING UP ACRS THE CWA TONIGHT. CONVECTION ALREADY ORGANIZING ATTM ACRS NORTH CENTRAL MO...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD AND THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTH. A LEADING PLUME OF MID LAYER UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES AND MU CAPES OF 150+ J/KG ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN PRIME FORCING WINDOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80...WITH SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES NORTH OF I80 AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM. EXTRAPOLATING FORCING AND LLVL CONVERGENT WINGS SUGGEST BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z- 24Z WED...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE FILLING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING RAINS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. WILL ALSO ADVERTISE MORE FOG AGAIN THIS EVENING NORTH AND EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVING RAIN BAND IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENT ZONE. MID TO UPPER 40 DPT SURGE WITH EVEN SOME 50S THIS AFTERNOON NOT TO DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH AND WILL FOSTER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. WILL WALK OUT RAIN IN TE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN FOG AND DRIZZLE BEFORE AFTERNOON MIXING SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. WITH THE CWA BECOMING UNDER ALMOST A WARM SECTOR EFFECT BY WED AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OCCLUDING LOWS COMPLEX...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S ACRS THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS IF THERE ARE SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ..12.. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY... WET IS THE SUCCINCT ANSWER TO THE FCST. LIGHT WINDS...WET AND COLD GROUND SHOULD ALLOW FG TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DZ EXPECTED. FORCING INCREASES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH MISSOURI AND ENTER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THIS BAND ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ MAY ALLOW ISOLD TSRA TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN BAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2/3RDS OF AN INCH TO NEARLY AN INCH SEEM REASONABLE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE LIGHTER OR HEAVIER DEPENDING ON HOW THE BAND SETS UP AND WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FG AND DZ SEEM REASONABLE. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE AREA AND INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF EACH OTHER. PRECIP SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE UPPER SYSTEM WITH EACH NEW RUN. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENTLY THE FCST IS DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE UPPER SYSTEMS THEN POPS MAY NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BRING DRY WX TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ..08.. && .AVIATION... LOWERING CIGS AND MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE IFR OR EVEN LIFR REALM AGAIN WILL PRECLUDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPORARY BOUT OF MVFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON AS TE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE LOCAL TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF BRL AND POSSIBLY CID FROM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY WAS OUT THE FOG SOME AND IMPROVE VSBYS SOME AS THE TRAIN BANS PASS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MOST RAIN PROJECTED TO BE NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS BY 12Z-14Z WED. DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORNING. ..12.. && .HYDROLOGY... SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF FROM THE SNOWMELT. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE MAQUOKETA... WAPSIPINICON...IOWA... ENGLISH...NORTH SKUNK AND SKUNK RIVERS FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING AND WOULD EXPECT POINTS ON THE CEDAR AND DES MOINES RIVER TO BE ADDED TO THE LIST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONTINGENCY FORECASTS FROM THE NCRFC SHOW NEARLY ALL THE TRIBUTARIES IN EASTERN IOWA AND NW IL REACHING MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IF THE 5 DAY QPF VERIFIES. ..DLF.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ 12/08/DLF