- Oxford, Iowa, United States (52322)
- WxZone: IAZ064ICAO: KCIDLat: 41.72NLon: 91.79W
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Currently

59°F15°C
Fair
- Feels Like:59.0°F15°C
- Dew Point:57°F°C
- Humidity:93%
- Winds:W 10 mphW 16 kph
- Pressure:29.89 in1012 hPa
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Astronomical
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Sunrise:
Sunset:6:33 AM CDT
7:40 PM CDT -
Moonrise:
Moonset:N/A CDT
3:30 PM CDT
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Neighborhood Weather
Discussions
300 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE MADE THEMSELVES FELT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING WELL INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW UP INTO THE LOW 70S...AND A NICE CUMULUS FIELD HAS FORMED WITH BASES UP AROUND 4KFT. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PLANTED OVER THE EAST COAST AND A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING UP INTO NORTH WEST MINNESOTA AND COLD FRONT DOWN INTO COLORADO. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ..LE.. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AHEAD OF US WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. SOUTH WINDS TO STAY UP TONIGHT...SO THAT EVEN WITH ALL THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I DO NOT EXPECT A FOG THREAT AT ALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH NEARLY ALL SITES STAYING UP AROUND 70. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY... AS IT IS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. HAVE DISCARDED IT FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE NAM IS DOING BETTER. MONDAY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ENOUGH THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MORE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THAN IOWA...SO HAVE PUT THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THERE AND WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OR DRY OVER THE IOWA COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS...AND HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH A FEW UPPER 80S WEST. ..LE.. .LONG TERM... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTER A FAIR AND MILD MON NIGHT CONTINUED LLVL MOISTURE PUMP OFF THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE AND APPROACHING NORTHERN ROCKIES BROAD L/W TROF WILL BE UTILIZED TO FEED MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA ON TUE WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION TAKING OFF IN THE PRIME FORCING SWATH AND WEST EDGE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST NEB...TO NEAR MASON CITY IA AND NORTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHWEST WI BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT LOCAL CONVECTION AND DEBRIS TO BE SCTRD ENOUGH ON TUE LONG ENOUGH FOR DECENT MIXING TO AT LEAST H85 MB TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S CWA-WIDE...WITH A 90 POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. SFC DPTS OF LOWER 70S AND SUCH HEATING WOULD CREATE SBCAPES OF AT LEAST 2500 J/KG BY TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST SHEAR TO FUEL ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT SUPPOSE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME HIGH WIND GUSTS LOCALLY WITH ANY STORM LINE THAT IS ABLE TO GENERATE AND UTILIZE A SFC COOL POOL LATE TUE AFTERNOON. LATEST SUITE OF 12Z MODEL RUNS STILL SUGGEST INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG ACRS THE CWA TUE NIGHT AND ALIGN UNDER SOUTHWEST MEAN FLOW...ACTING AS A CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR MCS GENERATION AND PROPAGATION BY CONTINUED SOUTHERLY THTA-E RICH LLVL FLOW. PW/S INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO WED MORNING. IN THE EXTENDED/WED THRU NEXT SUN/... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TUE NIGHT MCS WILL BLEED INTO WED MORNING AND LOOK TO DECAY DIURNALLY WITH LINGERING DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED SOMEWHERE IN OR IN THE VCNTY OF THE DVN CWA. MAY BE ENOUGH LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WED AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE CURRENTLY PROJECTED HIGHS ON WED...OR POSSIBLE EVEN WARMER. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AND THE NEW 12Z GEM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL GENERALLY SUGGEST MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS TO SWEEP ACRS IA WED NIGHT AND PROVIDE DEEP FORCING FOR ANOTHER MCS ROUND. PROBLEM AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE PRIME AXIS FOR THE ACTIVITY WILL SET UP DEPENDING ON LLVL BOUNDARY LAY OUT AND SFC FRONTAL PROGRESSION. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE STILL VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH MANI MCS TRACK MAY BE AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC BLANKET CWA-WIDE THROUGH 12Z THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH PROGGED PW/S EVEN HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING OF ACTIVITY CLEARING OUT ON THU IS ALSO DEBATABLE DEPENDING AT THIS TIME DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...BUT FOR NOW WILL PAINT HIGHER POPS IN THE MORNING WITH HIGH CHANCES MIGRATING EASTWARD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED FRONTAL PUSH BY INCOMING SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN LLVL RIDGE AXIS. PREFER THE NEW 12Z ECMWF OF A MORE ROBUST SCENARIO OF THE L/W TROF DIGGING ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS THU NIGHT WITH BRISK CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING A CLEAR OUT AND COOL DOWN THU NIGHT. MAY HAVE LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING IF THIS SCENARIO IS BUILT UPON BY UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLL RIDGE AXIS AND THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISING A COOL INFLUX OF H85 TEMPS OUT OF CANADA DOWN TO NEAR 10 DEGREES C OR EVEN COOLER SUGGEST HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE HELD IN THE MID 70S. COLD CORE SHOWERS WOULD LOOK TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACRS WI CLOSER TO UPPER COOL POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT POSSIBLY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FRI AFTERNOON. FRI NIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. COOL TREND BLEED INTO THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AGAIN ON SAT. SUNDAY...WILL HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR ELEVATED WAA WING TYPE PRECIPITATION EITHER SUNDAY OR MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT BY RIDGE RIDING ENERGY ACRS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. POPS NOT REALLY WARRANTED AT THIS POINT TO TRY AND NAIL DOWN A CHC WINDOW. ..12.. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT DIURNAL CU DECK AND AFTERNOON GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z. LIGHT SSE WINDS...AROUND 7 KTS...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY EARLY MORNING MVFR BR/HZ DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS AGAIN. ..LEGRO.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ LE/LEGRO/12